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Showing posts from May, 2020

01st Jun 2020

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Monthly MF Charts for NF and BNF Weekly Analysis NF VAs VAH - 9509 POC - 9427 VAL - 9117 BNF VAs VAH - 19436 POC - 19116 VAL - 18078 Recovery of BNF was bigger than NF.  In May, BNF went below April low whereas NF did not go near to April low. NF was stronger than BNF.  Expect BNF to move upside faster and bigger compared to NF in June ViX is contracting towards 27 and 25 zone. It might stay flat to negative most of the time Daily Analysis: NF VAs: VAH - 9465 POC - 9427 VAL - 9402 BNF VAs: VAH - 19104 POC - 18954 VAL - 18864 In NF, 9400 and 9350 are ref levels on the downside and 9580 and 9690 levels on the upside Trend is changing towards upside, Sentiment is still Cautious Gap between 9356 and 9282 is closed on Friday. Another Gap pending between 9557 and 9693, which might be attempted today. Bulls need strength to close the gap. Any first rejection around this zone can be shorted for target towards 9450 zone ViX closed towards 30.22. It was flat to negative. Expect ViX to ...

29th May 2020 - New Month, June Series!!

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NF had a clean Continuation Open Drive move and closed at highs. But it tried to penetrate 9510 number of times but failed. June Contract was in big discount of 40-50 points. For the first three days i will be using standalone June Contract due to premium change between Spot and Future. BNF could not go above 19450, reversed and closed below 19200. NF JUNE CONTRACT VAs VAH - 9442 POC - 9425 VAL - 9387 BNF JUNE CONTRACT VAs VAH - 19200 POC - 19038 VAL - 18942 Hypo - 1- If NF opens inside YVAL below YPOC, it might do some balancing moves and break below 9390, price might drive down towards 9330 and break of that zone will test 9280 / 9250 zone. Break above 9450, price can drive up towards 9500 / 9520 zone Hypo - 2 - If NF opens below YVAL, price might drive down towards 9350 / 9330, and break of this zone, price might further drive down towards 9280 / 9250 zone. If 9330 does not break, price might bounce back towards YPOC (9425) and 9450 zone. Hypo - 3 - If NF opens above YVAH, it might ...

28th May 2020 - Weekly and Monthly May Expiry!!

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NF took support around 8990 and had a superb trend day it broke 9180 / 9225 zone. This is a short term trend change and NF can touch 9420 / 9450 zone.  BNF lead the rally. Held 17500 strongly and bounced towards freaking highs. BNF can touch 19150 zone. The rally will be driven by BNF. Up-move in BNF will be bigger than NF. NF VAs VAH - 9252 POC - 9100 VAL - 8990 BNF VAs VAH - 18504 POC - 17784 VAL - 17490 Hypo - 1 - If price opens above YVAH, it might initially drive down towards 9220 / 9180 zone and then take support and bounce towards 9400 / 9450 zone.  Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA above YPOC, it might balance for a while around 9250 and 9180, break above 9250, price can move towards 9400 / 9420 zone Hypo - 3 - If price opens inside YVA below 9160 zone, it might drive down towards YPOC 9100 and 9080 zone. Side Notes: 1) Lot of Singles formed in both NF and BNF. Refer Chart for levels 2) NF broke important zone of 9220 with momentum, the rally will sustain for short ...

27th May 2020

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NF had a gap-up opening, First hour was completely Open Auction Outside Range. It couldn't penetrate 9170 / 9180 zone, got rejected sharply and moved towards 9000 zone. Price took support around 8970 zone.  BNF was slightly stronger than NF and was holding 17300 zone. NF VAs VAH - 9107 POC - 9030 VAL - 8977 BNF VAs VAH - 17604 POC - 17484 VAL - 17412 Hypo - 1 - If NF opens inside YVA above YPOC, it might do some balancing moves and it might take support around 9030 / 9040 and bounce towards 9100 zone. If 9100 breaks, it might further drive up towards 9140 / 9160 zone. If YPOC is broke, it might drive down to test 8965 / 8920 zone.  Hypo - 2 - If NF opens above YVAH, it might drive up towards 9150 / 9160 zone. 9220 must be broke with momentum for price to drive up further towards 9400 / 9450 zone. Any rejection in the 9160 - 9180 zone, price might drive down towards YPOC and YVAL Side Notes: 1) ViX was negative to flat. Closed around 31.47 (Down by 3%). Looks like ViX is going ...

26th May 2020 - Weekly and Daily Analysis

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Weekly Analysis: NF VAs Shifted lower compared to last week. The price mainly drove down because of huge resistance around 9180 / 9200 zone and BNF is super bearish. Down move stopped around 8810 which is also the monthly VAL. Resistance around 9120, 9180 and 9200. Break above 9200, price can drive up to 9500 zone. Support around 8965, 8855 and 8810. Break below 8810, price can drive down towards 8400 zone In BNF, the VAs significantly shifted low, forming a huge selling tail in the weekly profile. BNF stopped driving down exactly near weekly VPOC at 17000 and closed below 17300, indicating further down move. 17600 will act as resistance and break above can go till 18050 and 18300. Break below 17000, price can drive towards 16000. NF VAs VAH - 9045 POC - 8975 VAL - 8855 BNF VAs VAH - 18054 POC - 17592 VAL - 17460 BNF Weekly Profile NF Weekly Profile Daily Analysis: NF VAs VAH - 9042 POC - 8995 VAL - 8965 BNF VAs VAH - 17496 POC - 17208 VAL - 17010 BNF got rejected around 21st May VAL (...

22nd May 2020

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NF had an open above YVAH and drove up towards 9170, Rejection around these levels made price to break down towards 9050 zone. It did not break the PDL like BNF because RIL was supporting. BNF broke PDL forming huge singles and also close near very near to YPOC (17556). NF had a Normal Variation day without day low break. OTD Failure after 12PM. BNF had a Neutral Extreme down day.  NF VAs VAH - 9145 POC - 9117 VAL - 9082 BNF VAs VAH - 18150 POC - 18054 VAL - 17880 Hypo - 1 - If NF opens below YVAL, it might drive down towards 9010 / 9000 zone. If 9000 zone breaks with momentum, it might drive down further to test 8950 zone (20th May VPOC). Break of 8950, will trigger another down move towards 8890 and 8830 zone. If 9000 doesn't break, price might bounce towards YPOC. Hypo - 2 - If NF opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might get rejected around 9115 and drive down to test 9000 / 8950 zone. If NF breaks above 9115, it might drive up to test 9180 / 9200 zone.  Hypo - 3 - If NF opens...

21st May 2020 - Weekly Expiry

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NF took support around 8925 and bounced towards 9050 / 9100 zone. Closed at highs. BNF also supported the up-move and closed at highs. NF VAs VAH - 9030 POC - 8957 VAL - 8925 BNF VAs VAH - 17766 POC - 17556 VAL - 17466 Hypo - 1- If NF opens above YVAH, it might drive up to test 9120 / 9160 / 9200 zone. Any rejection around 9200, can take price toward YPOC. Break above 9220 zone, price might move towards 9350 / 9400 zone Hypo - 2 - If NF opens inside YVA above YPOC, it might balance for a while, break above 9030 zone can take price towards 9130 / 9180 zone. If YPOC tests and doesn't reject, it might drive down towards 8850 / 8820 zone. Hypo - 3 - If NF opens below YVAL, it might drive up to test YPOC and if POC rejects, it might drive down towards 8765 / 8700 zone.  Side Notes : 1) ViX fell around 8% and closed around 35.81.  2) VAs shifted little higher 3) NF and BNF is still weak in-terms of price. Needs to break above 9220 and 18800 to become bullish 4) Today open is importa...

20th May 2020

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NF couldn't penetrate 9030 yesterday. By the time NF reached YPOC, BNF already broke PDL (17460).  NF open was Open Rejection Reverse and ended the day with a Neutral day. BNF opened inside YVA, but also ended with neutral day. NF VAs VAH - 9012 POC - 8972 VAL - 8900 BNF VAs VAH - 18054 POC - 17892 VAL - 17532 Hypo - 1 - If NF opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might balance for a while and later break of 8900, it might test 18th may low and bounce towards 9000 / 9040 zone. Break of 8810 zone can lead to 8750 and 8700 Hypo - 2 - If NF opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 8810, break of 8810 zone, price can test 9750 and 8700 Side Notes: 1) ViX fell 3.5% and closed around 39.45 2) BNF close to last support around 17300, momentum break below can bleed the whole market 3) Important zones to watch in NF today is 9060 and 9120 on the upside, 8860 and 8810 on the downside. Bearish below 9200.  4) Important zones to watch in BNF are 18300 / 18360 on the upside, 17300 and 17250...

19th May 2020

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NF had a huge sell-off at the first hour which is also due to BNF ultra weakness.  NF closed near day low at 8829.5. 8810 is monthly VAL, which might act as support for a short while. expecting a gap-up open. NF VAs VAH - 8930 POC - 8880 VAL - 8820 BNF VAs VAH - 17910 POC - 17610 VAL - 17460 Hypo - 1 - If price opens below YVAL, potential COD, but COD might fail. price might drive down towards 9765 (8th Apr VPOC) and then bounce up towards 8900 / 8950 levels. Hypo - 2 - If price opens above YVAH, it might drive up to 9000 / 9060 zone. If 9060 zone breaks, price can head higher towards 9150 / 9180 zone. If 9060 zone is not broken, price can reverse sharply towards YPOC 8880 and Y.low (8820) Hypo - 3 - If price opens inside YVA above YPOC, it might take support around POC and break of 8920 zone, price might drive up to test 9000 / 9040 zone. If price opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might take support around YVAL and drive up towards 9000 levels. Side Notes: 1) Yesterday indicates ...

18th May 2020 - Weekly and Daily Analysis

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Weekly Analysis NF VAs VAH - 9352 POC - 9085 VAL - 9040 BNF VAs VAH - 19668 POC - 19236 VAL - 18612 NF is relatively weak, Weekly VAs has shifted lower compared to last week. This indicates NF weakness. Two important levels in NF are 9220 and 9355. These levels has to be breached for NF to head higher towards 9600 levels and break of 9600 zone will lead price towards 9800 levels.  On the lower side, 9040 and 9010 is the support. If 9010 breaks decisively, it might the test 8930 / 8910 zone. If price break 8910 zone, which is the last support for NF to head higher, the sell-off will be fast and price can reach new lows.   BNF is ultra weak, the VAs shifted much lower compared to NF. Important levels in BNF are 18900 / 19000 and 19240. 19240 has to be breached for price to test 19650 / 19700 zone. Below 18600, BNF can touch 18200 / 18000 zone BNF Weekly Profile NF Weekly Profile Daily Analysis NF VAs VAH - 9132 POC - 9085 VAL - 9067 BNF VAs VAH -  18852 POC -  187...

15th May 2020

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After a beautiful OAOR in the first hour, small IB, Price broke IBL and started falling down towards 9150 / 9120 zone. BNF was little strong compared to NF.  BNF was holding 19000. Day type for both NF and BNF was Normal Variation day.  NF VAs VAH - 9282 POC - 9222 VAL - 9172 BNF VAs VAH - 19272 POC - 19146 VAL - 19080 Hypo - 1 - If price opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 9120 zone. break of 9120 zone will drive price down towards 9040 / 9020 zone. Break of 9010 zone, will lead price to test 8930 / 8920 zone.  If price takes support at 9020 / 9010 zone, it might bounce up to test 9180 / 9200 / 9220 zone. Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might balance for a while and later it might test 9220 zone and reject towards YVAL and Y.Low.  Hypo - 3 - If price opens above YVAH, it might drive down to test YPOC and then bounce up to test 9300 / 9320 zone. break above 9320 zone, price can test 9340 / 9360 zone. Side Notes: 1) Even at this gap down ...

14th May 2020

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NF opened with a huge gap-up around 9550, but was not able to sustain and drove down upto 9360 zone. BNF was strong at the first half, then later drove down and tested day low for a small amount of time.  NF had a Open Rejection Reverse open-type with 'b' shape profile. The Auction was within the IB, so day type is a Normal day. NF VAs VAH - 9442 POC - 9417 VAL - 9382 BNF VAs VAH - 19800 POC - 19698 VAL - 19554 Hypo - 1 - If price opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 9300 / 9260 zone. If 9260 breaks, 9210 / 9180 / 9155 zone can be tested. If price does not breach 9210, it might bounce back towards 9350 / 9380 zone.  Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might balance for a while between YVAL and YPOC and later drive down to test 9300 / 9250 zone.  Side Notes: 1) 9380 Anomaly was repaired.  2) ViX was negative, but slowly came up and closed around 38.84 3) BNF ref zones are 19300 and 19000 on the downside, 20550 on the upside. 4) NF Ref Zones ar...

13th May 2020

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NF made low around 9038. NF opening was a beautiful open test drive down and BNF had open drive down.  Initially RIL and BNF was driving the markets down.  NF had a strong support around 9040 and 9020. Price bounced sharply with help of BNF. BNF tested the VPOC around 18228. The day for NF was Normal Variation day and for BNF it is almost Neutral extreme up day (150 points gap between day high and closing).  NF VAs VAH - 9155 POC - 9097 VAL - 9040 BNF VAs VAH - 18630 POC - 18348 VAL - 18228 Hypo - 1 - If price opens above YVAH, price might drive up to test 9300 / 9350 / 9400 zones. Any break above May 11 high (9440), price will test 9600 zone. Breaking 9600 is crucial, any break above 9600, price will test 9800 / 9850 zone Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA, price might take support around 9100, and bounce towards 9350 / 9400 zones. Side Notes: 1) If you noticed, Even when markets were falling, ViX was flat to negative 2%. There was no spike in ViX and 9000 PE writers w...

12th May 2020

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Today NF gave some wild moves after Reliance stopped supporting the up-move. NF opened slightly above YVAH, exactly opposite to BNF which opened below YVAL. This gave the clue NF might not head higher as expected. Even though it broke 9370 / 9420 zone with momentum, BNF absolutely did not support the move. BNF is weak as hell. NF VAs VAH - 9402 POC - 9340 VAL - 9292 BNF VAs VAH - 19524 POC - 19326 VAL - 19068 Hypo - 1 - If price opens below YVAL and break of Y.Low, price can test 9150 and 9120 zones. break of 9120 zone will lead to 9050 and 9020 levels. Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA below YPOC and price rejection around 9320, price might drive down to test Y.low and break of that zone will test 9150 zone. If price opens above YPOC, it might take support around 9320 and drive up to test 9400 zone.  Hypo - 3 - If price opens above YVAH, it might drive down first to test YPOC and take support around 9300 and then drive up to test 9400 / 9420 zone.  Side Notes: 1) BNF is dr...

11th May 2020

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Weekly Analysis NF VAs VAH - 9392 POC - 9330 VAL - 9232 BNF VAs VAH - 19878 POC - 19632 VAL - 19422 The total range for the week was at all time low compared to the previous week. Most of the price movements were between 9200 and 9400. Important reference for the week stands at 9370 for upside break towards 9600 and 9210 for downside break towards 9100 zone. Weekly Profile of NF and BNF Daily Analysis: NF closed at lows on friday because of BNF weakness. ViX closed at 38.41, continuously declining after a huge jump of 30% on last monday. NF VAs VAH - 9335 POC - 9310 VAL - 9265 BNF VAs VAH - 19950 POC - 19764 VAL - 19530 Hypo - 1 - If NF opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 7th May VPOC. Any momentum break of 9210 zone can take price towards 9120 / 9100 zone. Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA below YPOC, it might drive down to test Y.Low. If opens inside YVA above YPOC, it might take support around there and drive...

8th May 2020

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NF opened below YVAL, opened exactly around 9150 and bounced towards YVAL. Most boring expiry after a long time. Total Balancing day. The Move either side might be strong which might come today or tomorrow. NF VAs VAH - 9227 POC - 9212 VAL - 9185 BNF VAs VAH - 19566 POC - 19512 VAL - 19404 Hypo -1 - If price opens above YVAH, price might drive up to test YPOC (9300) zone and break above it might test 9370. Breaking 9370 is important for further upside towards 9550 / 9600 zone Hypo - 2 - If price opens inside YVA, break of YVAH or YVAL, will drive prices to 9300 / 9370 or 9120 / 9090 zone respectively. Or expect another day of balancing between 6th May profile range. Hypo - 3 - If price opens below YVAL and break of 9150 levels, it might drive down to test 9100 / 9050 / 9020 zone. Side Notes: 1) Volume towards buying is high. Apparently FII has bought for a value of 19K Cr. FII and DII was buyers in yesterday's market. 2) ViX slides about 3% and closed around 39...

07th May 2020 - Weekly Expiry!!

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NF tried to break 9370, but failed. 9260 was holding but broke decisively, day low test was expected, might test today. Volumes were unusually high (on the buyer's side). ViX was down by 5% closed around 41.25. BNF was strong took support around 18900 and closed at almost highs. NF VAs VAH - 9355 POC - 9297 VAL - 9242 BNF VAs VAH - 19782 POC - 19656 VAL -  19446 Hypo - 1 - If price opens above YVAH and break of 9370 zone will make price to drive higher to test 9500 / 9550 zone Hypo - 2 - If price opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 9120 / 9100 zone. Break of 9120 will lead to test of 9040 / 9020 zone. Hypo - 3 - If price opens inside YVA below YPOC, on break of YVAL, it might drive down to test 9120 / 9080 / 9040 / 9020 zone. Side Notes: 1) BNF was slightly more bullish compared to NF and volumes were high. This indicates we might bounce in some time next week. 2) Zones to watch is support at 9120, break of 9120 can lead price to 9040-9020 zone. T...

06th May 2020

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NF Closed at lows, strong bearish context, it could not penetrate above 9420 / 9400 zone. BNF is ultra bearish and all PSU banks fell more than 5%. RIL is kind of strong and holding the zone, that is why the move in NF was kind of zig-zag for a while. BNF Last support was 19400. There are no VPOCs nearby on the downside. We have one VPOC at 18228 from 7th Apr 2020. NF VAs VAH - 9395 POC - 9357 VAL - 9305 BNF VAs VAH - 19950 POC - 19776 VAL - 19578 The downtrend can continue to test 9170 / 9120 / 9090 / 9050 zones. The Zones to short are 9310 and 9360. If price moves above 9370 with momentum, it can test 9420 / 9470 and 9550 zones.

05th May 2020

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NF broke all the strong support that was expected to hold. ViX shot up to 28% and now at 43. Volatility and range will be high. BNF was Bearish as hell and kind of gave a long liquidation profile. perfect OD down movement. NF VAs VAH - 9427 POC - 9355 VAL - 9307 BNF VAs VAH - 19992 POC - 19872 VAL - 19572 Hypo - 1 - If NF opens below YVAL, it might drive down to test 9170 / 9150 zones. Hypo - 2 - If NF opens inside YVA just below POC, it might hit YPOC around 9360 zone and then drive down to test 9170 / 9150 zone, if 9150 breaks with momentum, 9090 zone might be tested. If NF opens above YPOC, it might touch YVAH, then drive down to test 9260 zone (Y. Low) Hypo - 3 - If NF opens above YVAH and breaks PDH (9477.5), it might drive up to test 9570 / 9600 zone. Side Notes: 1) ViX finally shot up forming a small bottom at 32 zone. 2) Important Zones to watch today are 9360, 9430 and 9477. On the down side 9260 and 9245. 3) Almost all banks fell more than 5% and BNF l...

04th May 2020 - Weekly and Daily Analysis

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Monthly Value Areas: NF VAs VAH - 9372  POC - 9012 VAL - 8810 BNF VAs VAH - 20562 POC - 19542 VAL - 18684 Weekly Analysis: NF VAs VAH - 9587  POC - 9305 VAL - 9232 BNF VAs VAH - 21426 POC - 20118 VAL - 19692 Week of 27th Apr 2020 was strong and NF closed at highs. BNF was strong. Broke some important zones like 9530, 9610 and closed around 9860 levels. 9910 levels are important for bulls to touch 10455 levels which is the next VPOC from 8th March 2020.  The gap-up open will act as Singles which are around 9760 - 9580. Any break below 9580, price might test 9375 levels and if momentum is high, can test weekly POC at 9305 zone. The last support for bulls as per weekly profile is at 9270, any break below 9270, can trigger a sharp down move towards 9050 zone.  ViX was constantly declining around 5% everyday until Thursday, where it recovered till 33 and closed slightly positive.  NF Weekly Profile ...